Jun 20, 2013

BA: Mets Prospect Rankings

Adam Rubin over at ESPN-NY posted a list published in Baseball America. No real big surprises, it falls out about how I would have expected it. Always interesting to see where F-Mart winds up on these lists. Such a shame the kid is made of glass.

Keep in mind obviously that Ike Davis and Josh Thole aren’t on this list, now playing everyday at first and behind the plate respectively.

1-Jenrry Mejia, RHP
2-Wilmer Flores, SS
3-Cesar Puello, OF
4-Matt Harvey, RHP
5-Kirk Nieuwenhuis, OF
6-Reese Havens, 2B
7-Lucas Duda, OF/1B
8-Fernando Martinez, OF
9-Aderlin Rodriguez, 3B
10-Brad Holt, RHP
11-Juan Urbina, LHP
12-Robert Carson, LHP
13-Jeurys Familia, RHP
14-Darrell Ceciliani, OF
15-Cory Vaughn, OF
16-Dillon Gee, RHP
17-Erik Goeddel, RHP
18-Steve Matz, LHP
19-Zach Lutz, 3B
20-Robbie Shields, SS
21-Brad Emaus, 2B/3B
22-Mark Cohoon, LHP
23-Matt den Dekker, OF
24-Armando Rodriguez, RHP
25-Jordany Valdespin, 2B/SS
26-Jefry Marte, 3B
27-Kyle Allen, RHP
28-Manny Alvarez, RHP
29-Blake Forsythe, C
30-Pedro Beato, RHP
31-Jim Fuller, LHP

Mets draft philosophy hurting the future

The Mets are one of the elite clubs in Major League Baseball. Don’t scoff at me, I am talking about in revenues. They just opened a brand spanking new ballpark that they routinely said would increase revenues for the club. They have TV rights that are the envy of the league (second to only the Yanks) and they have a rabid fan base that despite years and years of heartbreak come out in droves to support this team.

The Mets have as many resources as any team out there. The only reason the Yankees can spend more money, is because they have had more success then the Mets, not because they have some money faucet down in Tampa. There is no reason the Mets couldn’t tap into the same streams, they just have to be successful. The Mets failure have been organizational and have been failures of baseball, not business. They often do not have the best people performing the most important jobs. On top of this, despite their revenues, the Mets often operate like a small market team. It’s like because they play in the recent shadow of the Yankees, and have been second fiddle to them in New York, they take on the persona of small market team. It’s a crisis of confidence. The Mets should be the Yankees of the NL, instead they tend to operate more like the Royals and Pirates.

I, as a fan, have a real problem with this. By and large I pay as much as Yankee fans do. I pay a lot to go to games, I pay a lot to watch my games on TV. I feel that money should be put back into the baseball team. It should not be siphoned off to people like Bernie Madoff or to expand the Wilpons real estate empire.

One area that really bothers me is the Mets farm system. The two major ways to make sure this talent pipeline are stocked is through the amateur draft and the signing of unrestricted amateur players.

Baseball operates differently then a lot of other sports with respect to the draft. With sports like the NFL and the NBA the contracts draftees get are pretty much structured upon where they were selected. In baseball it can vary widely, usually based on the players agent and depending on if the player is out of high school or college. Additionally with the disparity in revenues if a kid knows he can get big bucks from a flush big market team, he will put it out there that he demands big market money, often discouraging small market teams from drafting them even if he’s available.

This is one area I would really like to see the Mets take advantage of. By leveraging their advantage as a major market team in this area they can make a big difference with their farm system. Unfortunately as Joe Spector over at MetsMerizedOnline.com reports the Mets often spend far less then they should. In fact in 2009 they spent the absolute least of all MLB teams. How does this happen? Well we do need to take into consideration that they didn’t have a 1st round pick so it would tend to be less then the year before. I fail to understand how they can spend less then teams like the Marlins, the Royals, the Pirates, and the Nats. It just doesn’t make sense. The fact that they selected a reliever with their first pick certainly didn’t help things either.

According to this article in the NY Times the Mets are really doing themselves a dis-service and are operating like they have no idea what their doing:

The Mets divvied $3,134,300 among their 35 signed picks, more than 50 percent less than their 2008 outlay, when they had two first-round selections and a first-round supplemental pick. By contrast, the average for all 30 teams was a shade more than $6 million. Without a pick until the second round, No. 72 over all, the Mets’ spending was destined to decrease. But their 2009 strategy resembled that of a small-market club that sometimes bypasses talented players in earlier rounds because it does not want to spend more on them than players available deeper in the draft.

It gets worse when you consider this:

“With a brand-new ballpark and a television network, the Mets’ revenues are probably among the top five clubs in baseball,” said Jim Callis, the executive editor of Baseball America and an expert on player development. ”After spending about $6.5 million when they had extra picks last year, do I think they could have found the money this year? Yeah, I think they could have. It just comes down to the willingness to spend.”

This annoys me to no end. Do we see a reduction in costs on our end when the Mets have a bad season? We most certainly do not, so why do they get away with not spending money to put a winning product on the field? Examples like these to me are the Wilpons blatantly not caring about winning. Talk is cheap, it’s your willingness to make moves that make me believe your serious owners, or just a spoiled kid playing in his Queens sandbox.

The Mets seem to be more concerned with being good “baseball citizens” and not as much about stockpiling the best possible talent. The Yankees, across town, get it. They understand they have a competitive advantage and leverage it at every chance they get. As much as people bitch and moan about the Yanks, when you sit down and analyze it you really have to admire them as an organization. I would trade the Wilpons for the Steinbrenners any day of the week, even if it means I have to take Hank in the deal.

The Yankees lavished $423.5 million on C. C. Sabathia, A. J. Burnett and Mark Teixeira last off-season, but they have also devoted more resources to the draft and the minor leagues. Now they routinely press their financial advantage in the draft, spreading $7,564,500 (ninth most) among their 27 signed picks in 2009, including about $2.2 million on their first-round pick and about $1.25 million on their second-round pick. Even after paying those above-slot bonuses, the Yankees still spent almost $1 million more on the rest of their 25 selections than the Mets did with all 35 of theirs, despite the teams having comparable picks.

So even after spending half-a-billion on the top free agents out there, the Yanks were still willing to invest more into their future then the Mets. Maybe that is the problem. It’s obvious the Wilpons are horrible when it comes to investing their money, maybe they just don’t understand that the farm system is investing in the franchises future. Now that I think about it, I wonder if they are using Bernie Madoff to handle that investing too?

The Mets need to be careful with Mejia

Ted Burg from over at TedQuarters.net writes a good article on why people need to be careful when comparing Jenrry Mejia with other pitchers from the past.  People like to bring up names of pitchers that had success as young as Mejia.  They also like to talk about guys who started in the bullpen and then were able to make the transition back to the starting rotation.

Ted says:

And heck, for all I know, Jenrry Mejia can dominate out of the Mets’ bullpen this year while at the same time perfecting that secondary arsenal, then transition smoothly into the rotation next year to become a frontline starter and serve as a comp for all sorts of future young pitchers to come.


But as far as I’m concerned, it’s hard enough for a prospect to turn into a frontline starter without obstacles to his development, and the Mets would be best served making Mejia’s path to becoming a big-league frontline starter as smooth and effortless as possible.

It could be a pivotal moment for Mejia whenever the Mets make their decision on what to do with him.  It’s my opinion that all pitchers should be starting pitchers, until proven otherwise.  But as the debate rages on I can see a lot of merit on how Mejia, at 20, starting in the bullpen could be a good thing for his progression.

It’s merits back and forth under consideration, I think it’s going to boil down to can this guy help the club right now?  With both the Manger and the GM sitting in the fire with their jobs on the line, do we really expect them to make a decision for the long term betterment of the club?

It will be interesting to watch, that’s for sure.

Read: Why the common comps on Jenrry Mejia are not good comps for Jenrry Mejia.

The kids are kicking down the door

Consider this your warning incumbents. Your years of experience, your huge contracts in some cases, and your incumbent status don’t mean much to a team like the Mets. You need to work your ass off and perform. Because if you don’t, your gone. The kids are kicking down the door.

Have multiple prospects flourishing in spring training is a great problem to have.  The debate about what should be done with them is fun for fans. When they fully deserve to win the starting  job, yet you can still leave them down in AAA to season a bit longer. It’s a great position to be in.

Even if they do get sent down to AAA they will still have a great impact on the big club. Just their presence down there, a phone call away, should really push players who are reminded every day by the media that their jobs are in jeopardy. Guys like Daniel Murphy and Jeff Francoeur really need to get off to good starts. They really don’t have any wiggle room when you consider the springs that Ike Davis and Fernando Martinez are having.

If the Mets didn’t really love Frenchy and what he brings to the clubhouse, you can bet they would already be considering starting FMart in RF. Why RF? They wouldn’t make that move for a 1 month audition to cover Beltran. They would want to bring the kid up and let him play.  Additionally there are a lot of people close to the Mets that don’t think FMart is a centerfielder. This is puzzling because all he does in the minors is play CF. Ike Davis on the other hand has really done everything he can to be the opening day firstbaseman. Unfortunately with Murhpy the Mets hands are sort of tied. They have to give him a chance since there is no where else to play the guy. They have to at least give him a chance to build up value so they can then trade him for some value.   If Murphy struggles either at the plate or in the field, Ike could be here sooner rather then later. I think Murphy get’s one shot, they will not coddle him like they did last year. He will get a chance to flourish, or fall flat.

There are other players that are really lighting up camp. Maybe you’ve heard the name Jenrry Mejia? If you haven’t then you really haven’t been paying attention. Aside from all the comparison nonsense I think the biggest question about this kid is do we potentially hamper his progression as a starting pitcher by pitching him in the bullpen this year? It’s really a matter of team philosophy.  He is very young so by pitching him in the pen you will limit his innings and allow him to learn in the bigs a bit.  By doing so you will slow down his development of extra pitches that are imperative if he is ever going to be a major league starter. This decision is coming, be it before or after opening day, but it’s a tough decision that is going to have to be made.  It could have ramifications down the road for Mejia, so it needs to be made with caution.

Omar has already been forced to change his mind. Two weeks ago he said publicly there was no way Mejia was staying up with the club for opening day. That he was definitely being sent down to the minors. A few days ago he changed that statement saying he was definitely in the competition for a bullpen job.

There are other guys too: Josh Thole and Reese Havens to name two. Wonderkid Wilmer Flores is still very young, but all of them are showing promise. Lets hope the days of fat-cat players that are rich and lazy for this team are over. We need to build within in order to push the players at the top. Let’s also hope that Omar doesn’t go and completely trade away the farm in an effort to save his job, which is a big worry of mine. I am a fan for life so I think long term/big picture, Omar is a GM for another year, at best.

Could F-Mart be a darkhorse in CF for 2010?

In a word: no. Now your probably saying to yourself, well that’s a dumb question to ask if you can answer it so quickly. Maybe it is. The issue is Fernando Martinez is destroying the baseball in spring training this year. Normally I would probably be calling for him to get the start in CF while Beltran is hurt feeling he has by far the largest upside of any of the other candidates (Angel Pagan, Gary Mathews Jr.).

Problem is we have been down this road before. Unfortunately we can’t take a chance and just stick the kid in there to see what we might have, because the Mets have already done that a few times with this guy and it’s turned out to be bad moves. The Mets previously had this focus on rushing prospects to the majors and thus far it hasn’t turned out very well. Aside from Reyes and Wright we haven’t really had anyone of note come out of the minors to actually help the big club.

Martinez is certainly showing that he deserves to be in the discussion, and definitely showing that he hasn’t lost his skills that made him so exciting, even if he has lost some of his luster as a prospect. Leave this kid alone, let him go down to AAA and work day in and day out on getting better. Getting stronger. Getting more comfortable. This is a guy who killed winter-ball and was named Caribbean Series MVP so he’s showing signs of harnessing that talent. Most people forget that he is only 20 years old and that’s because he’s been on our close radar for 3-4 years now. We should just count our blessings that the Mets brass and namely Tony Bernazard haven’t ruined this kid with their express-checkout minor league program.

What’s so wrong with letting guys like F-Mart, Ike Davis, Josh Thole, and Jenrry Mejia go down to AAA and work on their game one more year. Not to mention get to know each other and build some comradery between each other and look for an impact, in force, in 2011. This goes back to my other article (Sit down Mets fans, we need to talk) about realistically looking at the Mets season and realizing this team is not abut now, despite whatever silly slogan the Mets put out there this year. Heck you could even convince me that Wally Backman should be moved from Brooklyn to Buffalo so he can work with these kids as it sure appears more then likely he will be managing the big club next year.

Even if Fernando hit’s .750 the rest of camp, they must resist any urge and send him down to AAA. Go ahead and have the talk with the kid now so there isn’t any confusion later. The best thing for Fernando is to go down and season for another year in AAA and focus on preparing himself to tear it up in 2011.

Patience is not a virtue in great supply around Citi Field these days, but for this Mets fan there is one area I really want to see some patience by everyone involved, and that’s with this group of kids that really looks like they could be something special.

Who is the Mets opening day shortstop?

As you no doubt know by now the Mets will be without Jose Reyes until at least May. So that begs the question of just who will be the starting shortstop for the Mets on opening day?

Most people have just assumed that it will be Alex Cora. He filled in for Reyes last year for a while until he himself got hurt with some bad thumbs. Cora is highly regarded as a great student of the game and many have said he will be a coach in the future.

That’s all well and good but I am going to make a case that Ruben Tejada should be the Mets opening day starting shortstop. The 20-year-old shortstop hit .289 with five homers and 46 RBI in 488 at-bats with Double-A Binghamton last season. Those are decent stats, but it isn’t about that. The Mets need to put the best defensive option they have in the field on opening day.

Imagine having Alex Cora and Luis Castillo as your defensive pairing up the middle. Both are aging veterans and both have greatly reduced range because of it. Could you imagine poor Mike Pelfrey in that scenario? Pelf and his cutter getting ground ball after ground ball and watching them just go by our two old middle infielders. That’s not going to work. If it’s deemed that Tejada is much better then Cora in the field then he must play. I don’t really care if the kid hits .100 at the plate. There is no way we can have a double play pairing of Castillo and Cora. It just wont work.

I like Alex Cora and like him on the team, though I though it absurd what Minaya paid for him, but that’s more as a bench guy and a locker room type guy that can spell Reyes or Castillo here or there. He can not play extended time for this team.

So take the kid aside, tell him you don’t care what he does at the plate, focus on his fielding and lets see what he can do. Explain to him up front there is really no pressure on him, and he will be sent down when Reyes returns. This way you don’t have to worry about ruining the kid, and you get to take a look at what you have potentially.

Truth is, from where I am looking at it, the Mets don’t have any other options.

Mejia, Davis could prove to be Amazin finds

Spring training is a great time of year for a baseball fan.  Hope springs eternal.  Your team can be anything you can dream up.  One of the best parts of spring training is taking a look at your teams future.  You get to see the next generation out on the field wearing the blue and orange.

For the Mets the talk of this spring training has been almost totally focused on the promise of both Ike Davis and Jenrry Mejia.  It’s unilaterally accepted that both have bright futures, the question is whether that future is now or not.

Mike Vaccaro of the NY Post writes a great article about how these two phenoms could turn out to be “amazin” finds.

It’s what happens once everyone arrives that makes the spring fun. It’s watching Ike Davis blast baseballs toward spots at Tradition Field that only a select few sluggers have ever reached before.

It’s watching Jenrry Mejia sling baseballs toward opposing hitters with velocity that steals breath and breaking balls that buckle knees

It’s a great read with your cup of coffee on Sunday morning so give it a read!

Link: Mejia, Davis could prove to be Amazin finds!

Get to know Mets phenom Jenrry Mejia

Brian Costa of the Star-Ledger and NJ.com wrote a great article today giving us a look into the background of the Mets latest Spring Training phenom.  All the talk this spring has been about Jenrry Mejia’s bright future, but most of us know nothing about this kid.  I just realized I didn’t even know how to accurately spell his name.

It’s a cool story about a kid who saw big money and big potential chasing his version of the American Dream and worked hard to chase it.  Now at 20 years old he is the Mets top pitching prospect.

It’s a great Sunday morning read, give it a look!

Link: Mets pitching prospect Jenrry Mejia leaves shoe shining days behind for good

Short Term Solution vs Long Term Success

There has been a lot of talk about how Jenry Mejia and Ike Davis should be on the opening day roster with the Mets.

Both have been performing spectacularly during spring training thus far and there is a lot of excitement surrounding these two.

Everyone loves prospects.  They are like that unscratched lottery ticket, they can be anything you want them to be.  Unfortunately for the Mets they all too often turn into that scratched ticket that was one liberty bell away from a free soft-drink.

I am not concerned about the merits of either play breaking camp with the big club.  What concerns me is my growing fear that the manager and GM don’t exactly have this teams best interest in mind when making these kinds of decisions.

There is no denying that both men are on very hot seats, and they have to get off to a good start this season or their careers in baseball could be over.  For an individual that’s a lot at stake.  So much in fact, that you will really consider doing anything to give yourself an edge.  This is what concerns me, will they decide in favor of a short term solution that may harm the teams overall long term success?

Big picture I would really rather see Mejia and Davis both spend a year down in AAA with the likes of Josh Thole and Fernando Martinez.  Letting these guys season down there and learn to be professional athletes will serve them well for years to come.  Rushing them up and putting them under the bright lights when they might not be ready could crush their careers (see the vast list of Mets failed “cant miss”  and “five tool” prospects from the past).

Could Mejia or Davis make this club?  They are sure making a case for it.  I’d rather Mejia spend the season being a starter and build a nice base of results for us to make decisions.  I do not trust this teams baseball sense to make that decision based on “hunches” or “instincts” or what they see.  I want to know he isn’t cut out for the starting pitching role before we convert him.  I understand that making him the 8th inning guy wont mean he can never be a starter, but I also don’t want another Joba Chamberlain scenario either.  And lets be honest, the 8th inning is a pressure cooker role.  It’s not like he’s coming in for mop-up duty.  Look what it did for Aaron Heilman, that kid wanted out of New York in the worst way.

I’d probably lean more towards Ike Davis staying up if we had any other use for Murphy.  Truth is Murphy can’t play anywhere else and by keeping Davis we are basically giving up on Murphy.  Davis is 23 years old so more mature and probably more prepared to handle the New York sports climate.  But with all the hype you bestowed on Murphy last year, the Mets owe it to him to give him a shot.  Let the guy go out there and see what he can do.  Let’s be honest, this isn’t a World Series caliber team anyways, so it’s not like your undermining a potential championship by doing so.

My biggest fear is that Jerry and Omar will make decisions to save their jobs, not to make the Mets a better team big picture.  You can’t exactly blame them, but at the same time I really can’t trust them.

Change of philosophy down on the farm

There has been a lot of talk lately about how Ike Davis should come north with the team at the end of spring training and be the starting 1st baseman for the Mets. Others have said how Jenry Mejia should be the 8th inning setup man for K-Rod, and before the signing of Rod Barajas many felt that Josh Thole was going to be the Mets starting catcher. Truth is this is how the Old Mets used to think. And I think they are wrong. Lets face it, the Mets have a horrible track record with prospects, over the last decade. Reyes and Wright aside, name a single contributing player that has come up through the Mets farm system? The only one really is Mike Pelfrey and the jury is still out on him.

I could argue the difference between success and failure is the philosophies at the time. Wright and Reyes were allowed to hone their games in the minors, only getting promoted when they excelled at the level they were playing. Under the Bernazard era it seemed like players got promoted to the next level only if they didn’t fail at the current level. They’d see he didn’t fail at AA, so then move him to AAA. Allowing a player to show that he can handle the AA and AAA level before moving him up rapidly is incredibly important, especially when the big club is in the bright lights of New York City. It’s as much about learning how to be a professional as it is about learning how to get the bat on the ball.

You can find a common thread with a lot of Mets busts in the past, and that’s been a lack of maturity. They just never seemed ready to handle it, and I feel that’s directly because of the organizations previous emphasis with rushing players through the minors. As a fan I buy into it at times, always hoping to see that young hot prospect. That’s mostly been a reflection on the overall lack of prospects in the Mets system. We are forced to concentrate on the players the Mets just drafted because there isn’t anyone to hype up at the AAA level.

Give the farm time to mature, and start to let players develop and eventually you will start to have people to talk about at the AAA level. Those types of players deserve the talk. They deserve to be hyped and most importantly they deserve shots at winning positions in spring training. Expecting players like Jenry Mejia to be ready and able to handle it isn’t fair and isn’t realistic. Look at poor Fernando Martinez. He’s all but forgotten these days and labeled by many as a bust. People forget the fact that the kid is only 20 years old. That’s because he’s been on our radar for what 4-5 years now? That’s crazy. I understand it’ a business and you want to build up your chips to create value, but the Mets should be sheltering these kids. The Mets should not put any expectations on them at least until the AA level. The atmosphere of being a Met and being looked at by the Met media will begin to apply pressure naturally as these kids are successful and climb the minor league ladder.

Here’s to hoping with the removal of the Tony Bernazard debacle will return the Mets to some semblance of reality. Lets hope they get someone who is capable and knows how to build major league players, and not just major league hype. Let the kids stay at AAA. Let them learn how to be a professional athlete. Let them refine their games. No matter how much I might scream and yell for them to be called up later, ignore me. It’s the minor league systems job to ensure the Mets have a bright future, here’s to hoping the change in philosophy will lead to a change in results.