May 25, 2013

Buzz: Mets must pursue Cliff Lee

I have heard/read a few times today how Cliff Lee of the slumping Seattle Mariners might be available. First Ken Davidoff had a nice article for Newsday saying:

So if Seattle makes Cliff Lee available, the Mets should be all over that. They have a deeper farm system now, giving them more trade chips, and they can replenish it (if they trade someone) with the seventh overall pick in this upcoming draft, as long as they’re willing to pay more than Major League Baseball’s slotted figure.

It’s a nice idea considering the price tag shouldn’t be that high considering he is in the last year of his contract. That also works out well as he would be highly motivated. Not to mention if the Mets were to bring him back, I am sure he would have a little bit of a chip on his shoulder after the way that the Phillies dumped him in favor of the hotter chick in Roy Halladay.

I then heard Mike Francesa talking about it on WFAN saying he thought that Lee would be available for 2-3 “good” prospects.  Take his analysis lightly as Mike often proves to have no idea what he’s talking about in these matters, but the fact remains that the buzz is that Lee is available and if that’s true the Mets have to get the deal done.

It just makes sense for so many reasons.  The Mets should work out a deal with Seattle and ask for 2-3 days to work out a contract extension and make the deal happen.  I don’t see why Lee would balk at the deal either.  He had great success pitching in the NL last year with the Phillies, and it’s about time we saw some benefit from playing in a park where long-balls go to die.

I don’t want to hear about payroll concerns.  I don’t want to hear about protecting our prospects.  The Mets are in dire need of a pitcher and here is one available at a relatively reasonable price.  If it means we have to say bye bye to F-Mart then I am willing to sign on the line.  The potential contract extension can not be a factor, the Mets brass have to understand they need to invest money into this team, and if they do they will see it returned in attendance when they field a good team.  They have to be concerned by the lack of juice around this team, especially in the lackluster attendance numbers at this point.  They need a shot in the arm, and acquiring an arm like Cliff Lee would be a perfect fit.

It’s time to worry about Johan

This blog was submitted to us by “Billy” and he brings up a lot of great points.  I hate to say that as I love Johan, but it really does make you wonder.  I think we all hope Billy is wrong, but it’s a great piece of writing.

It seems like just yesterday that the Mets made the huge acquisition of Johan Santana, giving up nothing except a mediocre Carlos Gomez, some pathetic prospects, and a contract extension. It was amazing to have an ace of Johan’s caliber at the top of the rotation.  A Cy young award winner in the AL? He would kill the national league and be an easy 20 game winner.  Well, we got 1 Cy young type season, but since then boy were we wrong!!!

A few Santana stats:

2008: 16-7 2.53ERA 34GS 234IP 206K/63BB

2009: 13-9 3.13ERA 25GS 166.2IP 146K/46BB (injured last third of season)

2010: 3-2 4.5 ERA 6GS 34IP 29K/11BB

Now I am a firm believer that the W-L stat for a pitcher is the most overrated stat there is in baseball and that “Quality Starts” are much more important so lets look at how many quality starts Santana has had.

2008: 34GS 29QS – 85% of his starts were quality

2009: 25GS 17QS – 68%

2010: 6GS 4QS – 66%

If we compare Johan to just our division aces, he might arguably be the third best.

  1. Roy Halladay: 5-1 1.47ERA 49IP 5QS 39K/4BB 3Complete Game Shutouts
  2. Josh Johnson: 3-1 3.16ERA 37IP 4QS 42K/16BB
  3. Johan Santana: 3-2 4.5ERA 34IP 4QS 29K/11BB
  4. Jair Jurrjens: 5 GAMES- 0-3 6.38ERA 24IP 15K/11BB
  5. AND WHO REALLY CARES ABOUT THE NATIONALS

While sitting in Port St. Lucie with my brother, uncle and cousin, we watched through the distance Santana pitch to the Cardinals minor league team and stand on the mound for about 30 minutes giving up 8 earned runs in one inning.

Johan Santana used to be talked about as one of the top 5 pitchers in baseball and now I truly believe he may not even be in the top 10 in the game. There are clearly 5 better then him; 5 that can be arguably better and then 10 that can have his name right in the middle. Although that is just one spring training example, I would also look at the ESPN ticker during spring training games and these same 10 pitchers listed below would throw an average of: 6IP 4-5H 1-2ER 7-9K’s.

TOP 5 include (no specific order): Halladay, Lincecum, Felix Hernandez, Cliff Lee, Sabathia.

Johan does not even compare to these pitchers anymore. If you took two of the exact same lineups and had Santana pitch against these guys, there is no chance you would give him the chalk as the favorite.

NEXT 5 (in no specific order): Josh Johnson, Carpenter, U. Jimenez, Greinke, Liriano.

These 5 pitchers listed here are just guys who are consistent and ALWAYS give their team an unbelievable chance to win game after game.

SAME AS JOHAN CATEGORY: Verlander, Haren, Lackey, Oswalt, M. Cain, Garza, Kuroda, Burnett, Y. Gallardo, Jurrjens.

Of course you can argue that Johan is better then some of these players, but then take a step back and think about it, are you thinking of Johan from 08 and part of 09? Or are you thinking about the Johan we have now? Now think about that category and ask yourself if you would trade for those players straight up for Johan.  Now I want you to ask yourself another question. If this trade were on the table would you accept it? Johan Santana for: Matt Cain, Matt Garza, David Price, Jair Jurrjens, Yovani Gallardo, Ubaldo Jimenez, Phil Hughes.

Now think to yourself, if Perez or Maine were pitching that game last night having 2, 3 run leads and blowing both of them what would we be saying today? It was just a bad day? Stop excusing Santana for what he is now!!! Not the dominant pitcher he used to be.  You would think that after watching Halladay embarrass our lineup the way he did, that Santana would want to go out and do the same exact thing. But he’s not Halladay, he’s not Lincecum, he’s not Hernandez, Lee or Sabathia. He’s just a low-end number one, very solid number 2 starter.

We really need to open our eyes as Mets fans and stop thinking Johan Santana is the Johan of 08 or the Johan of the Minnesota Twins. He is on his way to being DONE with his lame 90mph fastball and predictable changeup.  He is not even comparable to the pitchers who shine today.  Hopefully the front office will see this and know that we need a legit number 1 starter like Cliff Lee who will be a free agent and possibly available at the deadline if the Mariners continue to play this way.

It is no longer a guaranteed win when Johan is on the mound and last night, although only one game, really showed it.

I love what Big Pelf is doing

I am loving what Mike Pelfrey is doing on the mound so far this season. He seems like a completely different pitcher then he has in the past, seeming composed and confident.

He has been able to control his fastball and place it wherever he wants it. This has been crucial as it’s enable him to get ahead in the counts and then throw his pitches to get strikeouts or bad contact. He’s been completely dominant looking to go 3-0 (the game is still in the 8th inning with the Mets looking to hold the 2-0 lead) with an ERA of 0.86. He seems to be doing well with regards to letting up walks, I’d still like to see less of them, but at least they don’t seem to be rattling him this year like they did in the past.

Big Pelf seems to be in to total control and I know we are all looking forward to much more of this from him!

Mets Fantasy Outlook: Starting Pitching

In this fourth installment of Mets Fantasy Outlook, we are going to look at our other starting pitching options beyond Santana. If you have missed our fantasy blogs please check back to Sunday for Jose and Johan, Monday for DWRight and KRod and yesterday’s blog focused on Bay and Frenchie. Let’s see if anyone else is worth a risk in the fantasy world.

Mike Pelfrey-SP: As of today, the Mets are looking at Pelf as the number two starter, which is exactly what they did last year. Even though Mike was the number two, he did not pitch that way, but then again did anyone on this team? Mike has been hyped big time for awhile now and the Mets thought they finally gotten Mike to achieve his lofty expectations in the summer of 2008, when he was unbeatable. With Mike being a dominating pitcher it was expected he would dominate in 2009 but three words can explain his 09 season, Jody Gerut and the Yips. Mike was extremely inconsistent and quite frankly pretty crazy during the season. Pelf ended the season with a 10 and 12 record and a 5.02 ERA. If you are thinking about taking Pelf, then you are hoping he gets back to that 08 season where we finished with 13 W’s and a 3.78 ERA. It is also important to remember even though a big guy, Pelf rarely records big K totals. Pelf is ranked 344 by Yahoo Sports, which means he is ranked as the 89th best SP, he is also owned by 6% of owners.

Oliver Perez-SP: To me Ollie has the most up side, if he could just get his head on straight. We are hearing all the right things this spring training about him, but only time will tell if he is worth the risk. I feel that if right Ollie has the most chance to be a pure number 2 starter for this staff but that is a huge IF. Ollie is ranked 1,010 th in fantasy baseball and is only owned by 2% of teams. My buddy Jp also alerted me if I take Ollie, he will kick my @$$, only time will tell if I am threatened by that. Oliver’s army will consist of believers in his 15 win 2007 season and that his hard work over the offseason has paid off. Definitely keep an eye on his spring starts which were less then stellar last season. If right though Ollie can pick up big time K’s and big time points for your team.

John Maine-SP: Early spring training has Maine penciled in as the number 4 starter. Maine is different from Ollie and Pelf as he has not been a hyped up prospect in his career, he was actually a throw-in in a trade but has been the most consistent of the three. That of course is with the exception of Maine’s injury history. Maine has been injured for the majority of the last two seasons. Maine like Perez, also has 15 wins in 07 and of course pitched the best game of the year as he brought a no-no into the 8th inning on the next to last day of the season. Maine is actually ranked the highest out of today’s subjects at 276. Maine strikeouts alot but is known for his high pitch counts and having to leave games early. Maine is ranked at the 77th SP and is owned by 28% of Yahoo fantasy owners.

Jon Niese-SP: Niese is the favorite for the 5th starter spot and I hope he does earn the spot. He has shown some good stuff and I remember his game vs. the Braves in 08 where he looked like a big time pitcher. Niese earned some respect by Yahoo as he is ranked ahead of Pelf. He is ranked 329 and is the 85th overall SP. As long as we hear good things about him, it should be assumed he will by the 5th starter. A youngster with a lot of upside, he may be worth a shot.

My predictions: I’m going to group these guys together as they have alot of similiarities. If these guys are all healthy, they definitely have the ability to be big time starting pitchers. You also know that CitiField is a pitchers park and these guys should recieve offense with the addition of Bay. None of these guys should be looked as your pitching savior but definitely worth a look as your 5th or 6th starters. Maybe hide one on your bench ’til you see their first couple of starts. If these guys are around late, I can def see me adding one or two of these guys on my staff. I would tend to believe that 2 of the 4 of these guys will pan out this season, one probably gets hurt and one probably just gets a case of the Yips, who do you ask? Your guess is as good as mine!

Gettin’ Figgy Wit’ It

Nelson Figueroa is like you. The difference between us and him is that he achieved his childhood goal: to pitch for the orange and blue. Ever since I was 5 all I have ever wanted to do is play for the Mets. Heck, I still want to play for them but unless I get a Henry Rowengartner type injury and come back throwing gas my goal will never come true. He is one of that made it, and in this age where we hear how people don’t wanna play for the Mets, it’s nice to have a guy who would only want to play for the Mets.

Nelson grew up in the shadows of Shea Stadium and after a very long journey through the minors and playing several different countries, he finally got the chance to pitch in Queens. Figgy has had many ups and downs through his time with the Mets and he has been sent back and forth to the minors more times then I can count.

The most heart warming moment that I can remember for a long time at a Mets game was when Nelson’s family came out to watch him pitch in his Shea debut. His dad fully attired in an authentic Figueroa 27 jersey acted the way I would if my son were to pitch for the Mets. They had a great interview and you could see the emotion involved in that night. Nelson pitched great that night but not as well as he did in game 162 in 2009. Imagine if he pitched that way in the last game of 07 or 08?

There is not one person I am pulling for more this spring then Nelson, I hope he can make the squad anyway possible from 5th starter to long man. He deserves a shot for all he has put up with to continue being a Met. He would do anything to stay here as he bleeds orange and blue. I definitely feel that he deserves a shot at being a part of the 25 man roster.

Every interview reminds me that he is just a Mets fan with a dream and he made it to where we all wished we would be. In a way, cheering for Figgy is like cheering for every six year old kid dreaming of being a Met. Nelson, best of luck this spring and I hope to see you in Queens!!!!