May 19, 2013

Mets Fantasy Outlook: Starting Pitching

In this fourth installment of Mets Fantasy Outlook, we are going to look at our other starting pitching options beyond Santana. If you have missed our fantasy blogs please check back to Sunday for Jose and Johan, Monday for DWRight and KRod and yesterday’s blog focused on Bay and Frenchie. Let’s see if anyone else is worth a risk in the fantasy world.

Mike Pelfrey-SP: As of today, the Mets are looking at Pelf as the number two starter, which is exactly what they did last year. Even though Mike was the number two, he did not pitch that way, but then again did anyone on this team? Mike has been hyped big time for awhile now and the Mets thought they finally gotten Mike to achieve his lofty expectations in the summer of 2008, when he was unbeatable. With Mike being a dominating pitcher it was expected he would dominate in 2009 but three words can explain his 09 season, Jody Gerut and the Yips. Mike was extremely inconsistent and quite frankly pretty crazy during the season. Pelf ended the season with a 10 and 12 record and a 5.02 ERA. If you are thinking about taking Pelf, then you are hoping he gets back to that 08 season where we finished with 13 W’s and a 3.78 ERA. It is also important to remember even though a big guy, Pelf rarely records big K totals. Pelf is ranked 344 by Yahoo Sports, which means he is ranked as the 89th best SP, he is also owned by 6% of owners.

Oliver Perez-SP: To me Ollie has the most up side, if he could just get his head on straight. We are hearing all the right things this spring training about him, but only time will tell if he is worth the risk. I feel that if right Ollie has the most chance to be a pure number 2 starter for this staff but that is a huge IF. Ollie is ranked 1,010 th in fantasy baseball and is only owned by 2% of teams. My buddy Jp also alerted me if I take Ollie, he will kick my @$$, only time will tell if I am threatened by that. Oliver’s army will consist of believers in his 15 win 2007 season and that his hard work over the offseason has paid off. Definitely keep an eye on his spring starts which were less then stellar last season. If right though Ollie can pick up big time K’s and big time points for your team.

John Maine-SP: Early spring training has Maine penciled in as the number 4 starter. Maine is different from Ollie and Pelf as he has not been a hyped up prospect in his career, he was actually a throw-in in a trade but has been the most consistent of the three. That of course is with the exception of Maine’s injury history. Maine has been injured for the majority of the last two seasons. Maine like Perez, also has 15 wins in 07 and of course pitched the best game of the year as he brought a no-no into the 8th inning on the next to last day of the season. Maine is actually ranked the highest out of today’s subjects at 276. Maine strikeouts alot but is known for his high pitch counts and having to leave games early. Maine is ranked at the 77th SP and is owned by 28% of Yahoo fantasy owners.

Jon Niese-SP: Niese is the favorite for the 5th starter spot and I hope he does earn the spot. He has shown some good stuff and I remember his game vs. the Braves in 08 where he looked like a big time pitcher. Niese earned some respect by Yahoo as he is ranked ahead of Pelf. He is ranked 329 and is the 85th overall SP. As long as we hear good things about him, it should be assumed he will by the 5th starter. A youngster with a lot of upside, he may be worth a shot.

My predictions: I’m going to group these guys together as they have alot of similiarities. If these guys are all healthy, they definitely have the ability to be big time starting pitchers. You also know that CitiField is a pitchers park and these guys should recieve offense with the addition of Bay. None of these guys should be looked as your pitching savior but definitely worth a look as your 5th or 6th starters. Maybe hide one on your bench ’til you see their first couple of starts. If these guys are around late, I can def see me adding one or two of these guys on my staff. I would tend to believe that 2 of the 4 of these guys will pan out this season, one probably gets hurt and one probably just gets a case of the Yips, who do you ask? Your guess is as good as mine!

You All Think I’m Crazy.

Am I talking about Oliver Perez or am I talking about myself? Most likely, you are thinking we both are. Yes, I am an Oliver Perez fan, hell, I’d even say Oliver Perez is one of my favorite players on the team. Yes, I bought my first ever authentic Mets jersey with Perez’ 46 on the back. How many of those have you seen around Shea or Citi? Probably just one. In my opinion, there is no one more important to how the Mets do this season. If Ollie can rebound from injury and pitch the way he did in 2007, I give the Mets a shot this season. If he’s “injured” or melts down like he did in 2009, we will have no shot whatsoever at the playoffs.

Before I go into why I think Ollie is so important, I would like to at least try to explain why I am a fan of “Big Game” Ollie. Ollie Perez is one of the biggest enigmas in sports, on one day he could pitch like Sandy Koufax, the next game he could pitch like Kei Igawa. It all started for me during the 2003 season. I was dating a girl from San Diego and was vacationing there and as we decided to go to Jack Murphy Stadium to see a Padres game, I was first introduced to Oliver Perez. Now, I don’t remember his statistics and I can’t even remember who they played but I do remember Perez was electric. I would guess 7 plus innings and 10 plus K’s. I thought “God, I wish the Mets could get this guy!” Funny how things turn out.

Perez impressed me that as I got back to the hotel that night I actually watched the replay of the game on San Diego channel 4. Being a fantasy baseball guy, I knew who Ollie was but after this night I would always consider myself a fan. As I got back to Vegas, I picked him on fantasy naturally. Maybe it was cause he looked like he had so much promise, maybe just the illusion of how awesome San Diego is, maybe I just enjoyed my date at the game, maybe it’s cause he was one of the first guys about my age to be in the big leagues but for some reason I like Ollie P. He’s lefty, he’s intense, he’s fiery, he’s got a world of talent, he’s a little crazy, he wears his socks high and he’s a Met. Finally, he is the underdog, you all hate him, he got booed on Opening Day at Citi and I love the guy that everyone hates. Any of these are great reasons to be a fan of someone in my opinion.

I always kept tabs on Oliver even after he was traded with Jason Bay to Pittsburgh for Brian Giles. One day, as I listened to WFAN, it was announced that another former Padre, Xavier Nady was headed to Pittsburgh for Roberto Hernandez after the Duaner Sanchez fiasco. The throw in, in the trade was a guy struggling in the minors, Oliver Perez. This is great I thought, get him outta Pittsburgh and we had a guy who could shock us in 07. But Ollie wasn’t satisfied with waiting until 07. Ollie was called upon the pitch the biggest game of the season, game 7 of the NLCS vs. the Cards.  Perez would earn his nickname Big Game Ollie as he pitched 6 strong innings giving up one run (yes, I know Endy saved his ass.) However, after this game I was hooked as the president of the Ollie P fan club.

As the 2007 season started, I knew Ollie was going to make the team after game 7. So I went ahead and ordered my jersey. People thought I was crazy, Perez? He’ll pitch one year and be gone they said. Well, Ollie won 15 games in 07, and pitched decent again in 08. During these two seasons, he would garner the nicknames Good Ollie and Bad Ollie, as he would constantly pitch 2 good games followed by a disaster. What also made people scratch their heads was that he would dominate the Yanks, the Phils and the Bravos, then he would get lit up by the likes of the Pirates and Nats. Hence, why I called him an enigma.

2009 was a disaster for everyone, Ollie included. Ollie participated in the WBC for Mexico after signing a huge 3-year, $36 mill. contract. From what I’ve heard, Mexico did little training and alot of partying during the tourney. Ollie obviously flubbed it a bit since signing his contract. Unfortunately, a knee injury and lack of preparation led to a terrible 2009. Ollie’s life also adjusted in 2009 as he got married. 2009 was just a year to forget for everyone and I hope we can move far away from it this season.

Well, Omar and the Coupon’s wanted some return on their 36 million so Ollie has been training since November in Arizona, a sort of psychological sports camp for pros. From everything I’ve heard, he was embarassed by last season and has trained hard to make 2010 a year to remember. I can only hope that this guy with so much talent has finally got his head on right and is ready to dominate the NL EAST.

Like I mentioned right in the start, there is no other player more important to the Mets in 2010 then Ollie. What do I think the Mets are lacking? A true number 2 pitcher. Pelf, may have that ability but he is still young and inexperienced. He also has alot of work to do with getting his head on. Maine, I like him but he cannot stay healthy and he was just a toss in, he does not have the upside Perez and Pelf do. Maine at best is a 4 pitcher, he is not going to be a standout guy, he is important to our team but he is not someone to take over and dominate.

Perez can dominate when right. If Ollie can step up and become that number 2 pitcher behind Johan, the Mets can make a legit run at the NL East this season. Without him, forget it, we would be lucky to finish in 3rd. Trust me, I got very frustrated with him last season as well. However, I know how important he is to this team. The best thing we can do is support him and hope that everything can work out this season.I’m going to remain loyal, as I know in the end Ollie P will be a difference maker for our Mets. If not, I know my cell phone will be ringing with texts saying how much everyone hates him after every bomb he gives up. My prediction for 2010, Ollie Perez is back on track and gets his 15 plus wins, take it from this Vegas kid, you can bet on it!!!