This is the second installment of Mets Fantasy Outlook, yesterday I looked at two guys coming off injury plagued seasons. Today, I will group together two players with something in common. Frankie Rodriguez and David Wright, who both had the worst seasons of their careers.
As I mentioned yesterday, not too many people think the Mets are going to do much as a team this year. We’ve heard it all, too many holes, who’s going to pitch out of the pen, etc. However, there are many top players that fantasy owners cannot wait to acquire. Many of our Mets do have major question marks this season. Which plans to make this one of the most interesting fantasy draft seasons that I can remember.
My belief is that if you are in a fantasy league with mostly New Yorkers like I am, you can figure people will be willing to take a chance on someone who in other leagues may be drafted much, much later. Even with question marks attached I believe players like Wright, K-Rod, Santana, Reyes, and even Beltran will go much higher then their average draft values on Yahoo.com.
With all that being said, lets get to it and evaluate today’s subjects:
David Wright- 3B- David Wright is one of the most talented players in the game. In his first 4 full seasons, David has batted on average over .300 with 30 homers and 112 RBI’s over those 4 seasons. However, even with a torrid start average wise last season, David’s struggles were well chronically as he finished with a .307 average with 10 homers and 72 RBI’s. David missed several games after being struck in the head by a Matt Cain fastball. Whatever excuse you wanna use…depleted lineup, the CitiField psychological issues, but something obviously effected David. David has struggled with his numbers early in seasons before but it continued throughout a forgettable 2009. Even with that being said, Yahoo still projected David as the 10th best player in the game. Owners have picked up him with the 12.4 th pick in the draft so far. David has bulked up and worked intensely this season to prove 2009 was a fluke as he looks to get back to those 30 homer, 100 RBI numbers.
Francisco Rodriguez- CP- I don’t like to continue using excuses but I feel KROD is a pitcher who plays to the competition. KROD got off to an incredible run with the Mets last season but not only for the Mets but also for KROD, the season turned dramatically after Castillo’s error versus the Yanks. KROD seemed to lose interest as the Mets got further out of first. We also heard about his limited chances and how he is someone who likes to pitch everyday. So his value like Santana’s will increase if the Mets are competitive this season. If they pull an ’09 then there are many more closers that will stack up more saves then Frankie. KROD’s era was over 3 for the first time since ’03 and his saves were under 40 for the first time since ’04. Unlike others who think he has seen his best days, I feel Frankie is still a top of the line closer, the Mets just need to be a top of the line team for us to see his best. Yahoo has Frankie as the 11th best closer at 140 overall. Fantasy owners however are scooping him early as his average draft selection is at 111. Some people value closers more then others but any way you look at it KROD has got to be better then the 11th best closer in the game.
My prediction: David Wright: still a late first rounder to early second rounder. I think most drafts will have people taking Evan Longoria before Wright even if Wright is ranked ahead of Longoria. At 3B though, Wright will go fast New York draft or not. I think Wright will be protected much more this season. I think he will probably get off to his traditional slow start and will be trying to hard. The K’s from last season are definitely scary. I’m going to guess Wright ends up with a .300 average, 25 homers and about 100 Rib Eye Steaks. I think it is also important to see who bats fourth. If Wright is protected by Bay, I think Wright will do better. Some lineups I’ve seen have Wright followed by Murph or Frenchie. I think this would hurt Wright.
K-Rod: Closers can be a crazy animal, when one goes then everyone gets desperate and starts drafting all of the top guys. On average in a 12 man league, KROD is going in about the 10th round, so add in the NY bias and expect KROD to move in the 8th round. I would also expect KROD to be the 5th to 6th closer taken, regardless of rank. If people believe in the Mets this season, then they certaintly will believe in Frankie. I think the Mets do rebound, which means so does Frankie. I don’t expect Angel numbers but 42 saves and a 2.50 era are not too much to ask.
Tomorrow’s subjects: The new odd couple and perhaps my two favorite players: Jason Bay and Jeff “Frenchie” Francoeur.