New York Mets Blog, News, Rumors
I will continue my look at the Mets from a Vegas perspective.
I will use the number of a bettor trying to win $100 if the Mets are a favorite, and will bet $100 if the Mets are an underdog. I will also keep track of the over/under record.
5/27/10 vs. Phillies-
Line: Mets (24-23) +113W (+204 for season)
Total: Under 7.5 (22-24-1 Over/Season)
Runline: (32-16) +1704 for season
In this final fantasy look at individual Met players, we will look at Carlos Beltran as well as if there are any other postions players that would be worth taking a look at. For those of you into fantasy, please look back at previous blogs as I have provided coverage on Bay, Francoeur, Wright, KRod, Santana, Reyes, Perez, Pelfrey, Maine and Niese earlier in the week.
Carlos Beltran is a perennial all star and is the poster boy for five tool players. He is a top outfielder and a usually drafted in the first two rounds of fantasy drafts. However, this season is different as CB will start the season on the disabled list. With this in mind Beltran is ranked 160 by Yahoo and on average is being drafted at 181. He is owned by 91% of fantasy leagues. At first, we heard Beltran would be out 30 to 40 games. On Mike’d up, Omar stated that if everything goes right for CB, he will be back in May or June.
This doesn’t sound very good to me, “if everything goes right….June.” You’re looking now at about half a season, not to mention when he does get back consider the first month to be his spring training. Beltran can be a .300 batter and put up 40 and 100 but over a half of season recovering from an injury how long should you wait to draft him?
Before I tell you what you should do about Beltran lets brainstorm if anyone else on the team should be considered. What names are even out there? Other starters include Murph, Castillo, Pagan and Barajas. The only player I see going in drafts would be Barajas. Anytime you can add a reciever who could add 20 and 70 to a starting lineup will be interesting to look at. Pagan could add some depth for a team, he can bat .300 and add triples and steals. Keep an eye on Murph as well, I doubt he’ll be drafted but if he can get off to a good start he could put up a good average and some RBI’s.
Prospects include Ike Davis, FMart and Thole. Who knows if any of these guys will earn a job, as they all are favored to start this season in the minors but keep an eye on them if they do earn a starting spot as these guys have big time upside.
My prediction: If Beltran is going 180, that means he’s going around the 15th round. He definitely is worth stashing on your bench but I would make sure you have your starting lineup set before you consider drafting a guy who will be on your bench for a couple of months. He will hit when he comes back but probably will not get a chance to get more then 20 homers and 60 rbis. Grab him, but only if it makes sense for your team.
Everyone else? I don’t think anyone really should warrant a draft day selection unfortunately. Hopefully, someone will get hot and prove me wrong. As a Met fan, I will certaintly keep my eye open and you can probably bet that after Murph’s first 3 for 4, I will pick him up. Best of luck this fantasy season and lets hope the Mets players not only have a great season team wise but also statisically.
In this fourth installment of Mets Fantasy Outlook, we are going to look at our other starting pitching options beyond Santana. If you have missed our fantasy blogs please check back to Sunday for Jose and Johan, Monday for DWRight and KRod and yesterday’s blog focused on Bay and Frenchie. Let’s see if anyone else is worth a risk in the fantasy world.
Mike Pelfrey-SP: As of today, the Mets are looking at Pelf as the number two starter, which is exactly what they did last year. Even though Mike was the number two, he did not pitch that way, but then again did anyone on this team? Mike has been hyped big time for awhile now and the Mets thought they finally gotten Mike to achieve his lofty expectations in the summer of 2008, when he was unbeatable. With Mike being a dominating pitcher it was expected he would dominate in 2009 but three words can explain his 09 season, Jody Gerut and the Yips. Mike was extremely inconsistent and quite frankly pretty crazy during the season. Pelf ended the season with a 10 and 12 record and a 5.02 ERA. If you are thinking about taking Pelf, then you are hoping he gets back to that 08 season where we finished with 13 W’s and a 3.78 ERA. It is also important to remember even though a big guy, Pelf rarely records big K totals. Pelf is ranked 344 by Yahoo Sports, which means he is ranked as the 89th best SP, he is also owned by 6% of owners.
Oliver Perez-SP: To me Ollie has the most up side, if he could just get his head on straight. We are hearing all the right things this spring training about him, but only time will tell if he is worth the risk. I feel that if right Ollie has the most chance to be a pure number 2 starter for this staff but that is a huge IF. Ollie is ranked 1,010 th in fantasy baseball and is only owned by 2% of teams. My buddy Jp also alerted me if I take Ollie, he will kick my @$$, only time will tell if I am threatened by that. Oliver’s army will consist of believers in his 15 win 2007 season and that his hard work over the offseason has paid off. Definitely keep an eye on his spring starts which were less then stellar last season. If right though Ollie can pick up big time K’s and big time points for your team.
John Maine-SP: Early spring training has Maine penciled in as the number 4 starter. Maine is different from Ollie and Pelf as he has not been a hyped up prospect in his career, he was actually a throw-in in a trade but has been the most consistent of the three. That of course is with the exception of Maine’s injury history. Maine has been injured for the majority of the last two seasons. Maine like Perez, also has 15 wins in 07 and of course pitched the best game of the year as he brought a no-no into the 8th inning on the next to last day of the season. Maine is actually ranked the highest out of today’s subjects at 276. Maine strikeouts alot but is known for his high pitch counts and having to leave games early. Maine is ranked at the 77th SP and is owned by 28% of Yahoo fantasy owners.
Jon Niese-SP: Niese is the favorite for the 5th starter spot and I hope he does earn the spot. He has shown some good stuff and I remember his game vs. the Braves in 08 where he looked like a big time pitcher. Niese earned some respect by Yahoo as he is ranked ahead of Pelf. He is ranked 329 and is the 85th overall SP. As long as we hear good things about him, it should be assumed he will by the 5th starter. A youngster with a lot of upside, he may be worth a shot.
My predictions: I’m going to group these guys together as they have alot of similiarities. If these guys are all healthy, they definitely have the ability to be big time starting pitchers. You also know that CitiField is a pitchers park and these guys should recieve offense with the addition of Bay. None of these guys should be looked as your pitching savior but definitely worth a look as your 5th or 6th starters. Maybe hide one on your bench ’til you see their first couple of starts. If these guys are around late, I can def see me adding one or two of these guys on my staff. I would tend to believe that 2 of the 4 of these guys will pan out this season, one probably gets hurt and one probably just gets a case of the Yips, who do you ask? Your guess is as good as mine!
As the season fast approaches I wanted to take a look at the pulse of the Mets fanbase and see how people feel about the competition out there. Rivalry is such an overused word by most sports broadcasts that it tends to get watered down. In the case of the Mets I wanted to take a look at who I felt were their top rivals. I’d love to see how you stack them up cause I know some people are gonna disagree with me!
1) Philadelphia Phillies: Most of you are doing “Duh!” but this top spot is really fluid. Of course for the last few seasons it’s been the Phils in the top spot. But for years before that the same position of distinction was held by the Braves. I think it goes up a notch though when it’s Philly. There is just a lot more animosity between the two cities. Both towns just do not like each other. A lot of it carries over from other sports like football, hockey, and even basketball. We despise the Phillies and especially their fans.
2) Atlanta Braves: These days this is more a residual hatred then an active distaste. The Braves have had a down few years but the rivalry is still there. You still hear “Laaaaaaaarry” chants at Citi Field so you know the hated is strong (the guy named his god damned kid after OUR stadium, ughhhhh). These guys just had such a run you could’t help but dislike them. And they did it in such an arrogant way. It certainly didn’t help that Tom Glavine continued to be a great asset for the Braves, even when he was wearing a Mets uniform.
3) New York Yankees: Ok so the first non-division opponent. This isn’t so much a Yankees vs Mets rivarly, it’s really all about the fans. It’s about Yankees fans, particularly those under the age of 30, that just think their Yanks have always been great and their overall sense of entitlement, and lack of reality. I am not sure if the dislike is mutual, but I know Mets fans can’t stand Yankee fans. Even if your not a Yankee hater, you can’t help but get a smirk on your face when they lose in some agonizing way because inside you hope that maybe, just maybe this will put some pause in Yankee fans and wake them up. It never does.
4) Florida Marlins: Ok so this might be the first spot I veer off course for a lot of you reading this. Why the Marlins? Cause it made me sick to my stomach to watch them play spoilers and beat us in our own building two seasons in a row to knock us out of the playoffs. On top of that my Grandmother is a huge Marlin fan, and anytime they do anything remotely interesting I have to hear about it. Let alone if they knock the Mets out of the playoffs … again. The fact that since their inception this team has been basically abysmal and yet still has twice as many titles as the Mets do in that time is staggering. When the Florida Marlins are a better run organization then you are, over a fifteen year period, something is really wrong.
5) St. Louis Cardinals: Another one people might not agree with. I still have nightmares about that 12-to-6 boomerang curveball by Adam Wainwright that left Carlos Beltran’s bat on his shoulder. This still causes me pain. Not to metion having to watch a guy who has hit 35 home runs in 6 seasons jack one out against Billy Wagner in the 9th inning of Game 7 of the NLCS. Can you tell I am scarred? Deeply.
Honorable Mentions:
LA Dodgers: Not so much for the baseball played, but because of the fact that when our owner goes to bed at night I know he secretly dreams that he actually owns the Dodgers, and not the Mets. That’s ok though because at times I have the same dream about the Wilpons!
Pittsburg Pirates: this is a nod to back in the days of Bobby Bo and Barry Bonds. I remember as a kid rooting so hard for the Mets to beat the Pirates. Man they just seemed invincible back then. Of course they quickly fell off the map of baseball and into the land of obscurity. Quite sad really.
There is a quick run down on how I feel about the Mets rivals. I’d love to hear how you rank them!
This is the second installment of Mets Fantasy Outlook, yesterday I looked at two guys coming off injury plagued seasons. Today, I will group together two players with something in common. Frankie Rodriguez and David Wright, who both had the worst seasons of their careers.
As I mentioned yesterday, not too many people think the Mets are going to do much as a team this year. We’ve heard it all, too many holes, who’s going to pitch out of the pen, etc. However, there are many top players that fantasy owners cannot wait to acquire. Many of our Mets do have major question marks this season. Which plans to make this one of the most interesting fantasy draft seasons that I can remember.
My belief is that if you are in a fantasy league with mostly New Yorkers like I am, you can figure people will be willing to take a chance on someone who in other leagues may be drafted much, much later. Even with question marks attached I believe players like Wright, K-Rod, Santana, Reyes, and even Beltran will go much higher then their average draft values on Yahoo.com.
With all that being said, lets get to it and evaluate today’s subjects:
David Wright- 3B- David Wright is one of the most talented players in the game. In his first 4 full seasons, David has batted on average over .300 with 30 homers and 112 RBI’s over those 4 seasons. However, even with a torrid start average wise last season, David’s struggles were well chronically as he finished with a .307 average with 10 homers and 72 RBI’s. David missed several games after being struck in the head by a Matt Cain fastball. Whatever excuse you wanna use…depleted lineup, the CitiField psychological issues, but something obviously effected David. David has struggled with his numbers early in seasons before but it continued throughout a forgettable 2009. Even with that being said, Yahoo still projected David as the 10th best player in the game. Owners have picked up him with the 12.4 th pick in the draft so far. David has bulked up and worked intensely this season to prove 2009 was a fluke as he looks to get back to those 30 homer, 100 RBI numbers.
Francisco Rodriguez- CP- I don’t like to continue using excuses but I feel KROD is a pitcher who plays to the competition. KROD got off to an incredible run with the Mets last season but not only for the Mets but also for KROD, the season turned dramatically after Castillo’s error versus the Yanks. KROD seemed to lose interest as the Mets got further out of first. We also heard about his limited chances and how he is someone who likes to pitch everyday. So his value like Santana’s will increase if the Mets are competitive this season. If they pull an ’09 then there are many more closers that will stack up more saves then Frankie. KROD’s era was over 3 for the first time since ’03 and his saves were under 40 for the first time since ’04. Unlike others who think he has seen his best days, I feel Frankie is still a top of the line closer, the Mets just need to be a top of the line team for us to see his best. Yahoo has Frankie as the 11th best closer at 140 overall. Fantasy owners however are scooping him early as his average draft selection is at 111. Some people value closers more then others but any way you look at it KROD has got to be better then the 11th best closer in the game.
My prediction: David Wright: still a late first rounder to early second rounder. I think most drafts will have people taking Evan Longoria before Wright even if Wright is ranked ahead of Longoria. At 3B though, Wright will go fast New York draft or not. I think Wright will be protected much more this season. I think he will probably get off to his traditional slow start and will be trying to hard. The K’s from last season are definitely scary. I’m going to guess Wright ends up with a .300 average, 25 homers and about 100 Rib Eye Steaks. I think it is also important to see who bats fourth. If Wright is protected by Bay, I think Wright will do better. Some lineups I’ve seen have Wright followed by Murph or Frenchie. I think this would hurt Wright.
K-Rod: Closers can be a crazy animal, when one goes then everyone gets desperate and starts drafting all of the top guys. On average in a 12 man league, KROD is going in about the 10th round, so add in the NY bias and expect KROD to move in the 8th round. I would also expect KROD to be the 5th to 6th closer taken, regardless of rank. If people believe in the Mets this season, then they certaintly will believe in Frankie. I think the Mets do rebound, which means so does Frankie. I don’t expect Angel numbers but 42 saves and a 2.50 era are not too much to ask.
Tomorrow’s subjects: The new odd couple and perhaps my two favorite players: Jason Bay and Jeff “Frenchie” Francoeur.
Like any junkie I will be watching my TV tomorrow at 1pm as the Mets pre-season schedule kicks off against the Atlanta Braves.
It feels like we’ve been waiting forever but it’s finally starting. Bring on the boys of summer!
Who: Mets vs Braves
When: 1pm EST
Where: MLB Network.
See you there!
UPDATED:
It’s been reported that the man behind all the buzz, Mets 1st Base prospect Ike Davis will play tomorrow at first and bat 7th. Good chance to check the kid out and maybe see what he can do.
Over the next couple of days, I am going to take a look at different Mets players from a fantasy perspective, tonight’s installment will start off with two of the most talented players in the game, Jose Reyes and Johan Santana, who disappointed owners last year with injuries but appear to be undervalued this season, perhaps taking a risk on one or both of these guys will pay huge dividends for your team.
Most fans that are die hard enough to spend time reading blogs like this one are also big time into fantasy baseball. Hey, it gives us regular folk a chance at being the GM and manager of our very own club. Fantasy baseball, whether for pride or for money has become a very popular form of entertainment in this country. In my opinion, Fantasy baseball is the best sport for Fantasy. I love the everyday, hands-on grind that is the baseball season. Fantasy football, which you only need to follow once a week just doesn’t do it for me.
Even though the critics think the Mets are going nowhere this season, they still have a ton of all star calibur players that are going to be highly desired in fantasy drafts. However, this season is going to be very interesting for fantasy drafts as there remain many questions with many of the traditionally high picks from the Met roster. Jose Reyes and Johan Santana are recovering from injuries, David Wright is coming off his worst season ever, Carlos Beltran is out for what is thought to be at least 40 games, how is CitiField going to effect Jason Bay’s power numbers and is anyone else going to step up enough to warrant a starting position on someone’s fantasy roster.
Again, over the next coming days we will examine many of the Mets finest but let’s look at tonight’s subjects:
Jose Reyes- SS- Jose was ranked in the top 3 last season because of his all-around game. Triples, doubles, stolen bases, RBI’s, some power, Jose has it all. At least that is if he is healthy, and everything we have heard from Mets camp is that he is back and ready to go. Jose is pre-ranked number 48 by Yahoo his average draft selection is 44.6 by Yahoo. I have a feeling that in drafts with mostly New Yorkers, he will be drafted much earlier. 48th would put him the 4th round but my guess is as we get closer to opening day you should be likely to see him come off the board by the 2nd round. With his ability for SB’s and Triples, with the fact that he is a SS, will have you nervously waiting to see how long he will last.
Johan Santana- SP- Johan was another guy who was a first round pick last season. He even went first in our draft and was proving he
was worth it early in the season but as he got injured, his owners paid the price. He definitely has the ability to be the best pitcher in baseball and bring home a Cy Young Award. Yahoo has him though as the 8th ranked starting pitcher. He is ranked 55th overall by Yahoo and is being drafted in the 50th spot as of today. Again, with alot of Met homers in your leagues and continuing to hear he is healthy, you can bet he will be gone quickly.
My prediction:
Reyes goes late 1st round to early 2nd round. I think he has a strong season, expect his SB numbers to decrease slightly as the Mets bat him 3rd and want to work his way back to where he has been. I think by the end of the season he will be a top ten player so the longer he lasts on draft night the bigger reward when he has a typical Jose Reyes season.
Santana goes mid to late 2nd round. I think a second year in CitiField will only help Santana’s numbers. As the outfield gets more comfortable with the park and he learns how to pitch there he can only become more dominant. Santana will not throw the CG’s that Halladay will and probably won’t have the K’s that Timmy Lincecum does but should have a great season. If the Mets can stay in the race he will only rise to the occasion more. That could mean more CG’s, but if the Mets are not close in September look for the Mets to rest him down the stretch meaning he will be more valuable if the Mets can win.
Tomorrow’s subjects: David Wright and Francisco Rodriguez, 2 guys looking to come back after their first ever down years.
There has been a lot of talk since it opened about how Citi Field is where power hitters go to die. I too was of this opinion after watching all the Mets home games. But after reading a few articles and looking at some of the stats I now think otherwise.
Most people site David Wrights lack of home runs as evidence that the park is way too big. The truth is David had a horrible season and saw his strikeout totals explode. Sad truth is even if he were playing in Yankees stadium his home run totals would have been down.
The truth remains that the Mets actually hit MORE home runs at Citi Field then they did while away. Yes that’s right I said they hit MORE at home (47 at home vs 46 away). Shocking isn’t it? It was for me. Then when you also consider that the Mets pitching staff allowed more home runs then was the National League average you start to scratch your head.
The problem isn’t if they should lower the walls, move up home plate, or even bring the fences in, the problem is the roster. If you watched all the games like I did last year you wont recall the opposition having any problem with the long ball. The solution is get our power hitters healthy and get some better pitching. It’s really that simple. The Mets home run numbers were horrible last year because the team stunk. No other way to put it.
I think that if we have Beltran healthy for a season (ok well already hoping for 3/4 of a season now) and with the addition of Bay and Francoeur we will see our power numbers go up, and no it’s not because they lowered the CF wall. At the same time I am willing to guess that our pitching staff will continue to give up more HR’s then the NL average, and that’s because, well, our staff is really weak.
It’s time to stop blaming other factors and take a look at the team. Weak lineups don’t hit home runs, and weak pitching staffs give them up. It is really that simple.
As spring training fast approaches I want to go around-the-horn on the projected Mets opening day lineup position by position. I will talk about my thoughts on how that position matches up and how it should be handled. Hope you enjoy.
By all angles David Wright had a horrible year last year. He truly did. Don’t talk to me about his .307 batting average or any other stats you may want to point out. Truth is he was never right. He never got settled and I think that had a lot to do with his mentality over moving into the new CitiField.
This year he seems determined to bounce back and showed up to Port St. Lucie and the Mets spring training in awesome shape. This time of year you always hear how “so and so is in the best shape of his life” so your probably rolling your eyes. But by many accounts Wright has added a lot of muscle in hopes of boosting his power numbers.
The dedication to his offseason training is admirable, but I do have my worries if in fact he has been so focused on his power numbers. I say who cares. I don’t really care how many homeruns he hits. I never really considered David a homerun guy anyways. I would much rather he drive the ball into those cavernous alleys and drive in runs with doubles. The homeruns will come if he makes consistent contact like he did a few seasons back. You can’t strive to hit homeruns, you have to strive to have good at bats and get get wood on the ball. If you are successful doing that then the long ball will come.
I have already written a few blogs (New Year, New Leadership) about how I want to see David Wright make strides in the leadership department. With Carlos Delgado all but retired and with Carlos Beltran sidelined for the first 2 months of the season, the time is now for Wright to take the reins of this team. It’s been a long time coming and he’s been around long enough. Jeter across the city has proven you don’t have to be a loud mouth, ra ra ra ra, type guy. Just be the hardest working S.O.B. on the club and people will follow.
This is a big year for Wright, as we need him to be an anchor in our lineup no matter where he bats. He has to, absolutely has to, get those strikeouts down. If he can get back to good at bats then I fully expect to see his RBI’s back in the 100+ area and see his slugging numbers increase dramatically. He’s entering his prime and there is no more time for fooling around and tinkering with your approaches. Make pitchers react to you, not the other way around.
David Wright will be a great storyline for the entire season and I can’t wait to watch #5 step into the box and show us what he’s got.
I am a bit of a contrarian by nature. So ever since Jerry Manuel first talked about moving Jose Reyes to the third hole I have been basically calling him crazy. After about a week listening to everyone go on and on about how bad an idea it is, I wanted to see if I could come up with a way it works. Here is my best shot.
The main problem for us is that we are operating on things we know. Unfortunately there is a lot we don’t know. With that in mind I think Jerry’s idea to move Jose into the 3-hole has a lot to do with his legs holding up. By taking him out of the lead off spot I think they are hoping it will slow him down a bit. He wont feel like he has to steal a base every time he is on base. I think had Beltran not gone down with an injury this would never have been a consideration, but for 4o games or so I think they are trying to use it as a way to ease Reyes back into the season. Let him get into baseball shape and literally get his legs under him.
The second consideration I had was when you look at a Beltran-less lineup the truth is our 5-6-7-8 hitters don’t scare anyone:
1) Reyes 2)Castillo 3) Wright 4) Bay 5) Francoeur 6) Murphy 7) Pagan 8) Barajas
You can see what I mean. Even as much as I like Frenchie he truly isn’t a 5 hitter. And as much as I hope to see Murphy step up, we can’t bank on that. So I think what Jerry is trying to do is to just push back our main players a bit and spread the linup out. Here is how it might break down with Reyes at 3:
1) Pagan 2) Castillo 3) Reyes 4) Bay 5) Wright 6) Francoeur 7) Murphy 8 Barajas
You have to admit the second lineup (based on last years performance anyway) looks much better. So I can almost understand what Manuel is thinking here even if my first reaction is thinking he’s crazy.
In the end I think I still stand against it. I think we are just creating more variables by moving people around. Any way you cut it the loss of Beltran for 40 games will hurt our lineup, but by shuffling people and asking Reyes to bat in a new spot might hurt him long after Beltran has returned.
One thing it did do though is help me appreciate our lineup when Beltran gets back, I think it looks pretty darn good:
1) Reyes 2) Castillo 3) Beltran 4) Bay 5) Wright 6) Francoeur 7) Murphy 8 Barajas
Jerry seems pretty stubborn about moving Reyes to third so I think we might actually see this happen. If it does I suppose it wont hurt to try it, but regardless of everything else, the second that Beltran is back he is our 3 hitter and Reyes needs to be immediately moved back to the lead off spot.
